Bettor’s Scouting Report · NHL

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs — Bettor’s Scouting Report

Matchup scouting, current roles, power-play opportunity and observed player markets.

Betting board / portfolios

Scouting portfolios selected by matchup and current role. Lines and prices are observed market terms, not value grades. Related targets share opportunity.

Market	Selection	Line	Price	Book	Captured (UTC)
Moneyline	NYI	—	+118	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00
Moneyline	TOR	—	-140	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00
Puck line	NYI	+1.5	-220	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00
Puck line	TOR	-1.5	+180	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00
Game total	Over	6	-110	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00
Game total	Under	6	-110	BetMGM	2026-09-30T23:13:40.324128+00:00

PP portfolio · NYI — shots

Full-game scouting targets expressing a PP opportunity. Current lines and prices are market information.

These full-game markets share a PP opportunity. Players can compete for finite shots and share scoring events.

Player	Expression	Current line / price	Book / observed (UTC)
Bo Horvat	Over SOG	3.5 (+125)	caesars · 2026-09-30T23:13:39.026919+00:00 · rotowire
Kyle Palmieri	Over SOG	2.5 (+110)	fanduel · 2026-09-30T23:13:39.026919+00:00 · rotowire
Brayden Schenn	Over SOG	1.5 (-117)	caesars · 2026-09-30T23:13:39.026919+00:00 · rotowire

Game scouting read

TOR allowed 23.86 5v5 SOG per game over 51 qualified games; NYI generated 20.57 over 47. This is a historical matchup comparison, not a predicted shot total.

NYI allowed 21.15 5v5 SOG per game over 47 qualified games; TOR generated 20.31 over 51. This is a historical matchup comparison, not a predicted shot total.

TOR allowed 6.12 5v5 SOG/game from the blue-line / point-area origin proxy (league 5.08; 51 games), while NYI generated 5.11 from that band (league 5.07; 47 games). Both historical rates are above their league references in this sample, a candidate location overlap for scouting rather than a validated weakness. Shot origin does not prove a tactical station or tonight’s result.

Earlier NYI SOG from that 5v5 band by verified current-role players: Tony DeAngelo 44, Adam Pelech 31; 165 of 240 came from other or unresolved players. Current line/PP membership does not establish a fixed shot station.

TOR allowed 2.41 PP SOG/game from the middle / slot-area origin proxy (league 2.20; 49 games), while NYI generated 2.24 from that band (league 2.19; 46 games). Both historical rates are above their league references in this sample, a candidate location overlap for scouting rather than a validated weakness. Shot origin does not prove a tactical station or tonight’s result.

Earlier NYI SOG from that PP band by verified current-role players: Bo Horvat 31, Kyle Palmieri 16; 56 of 103 came from other or unresolved players. Current line/PP membership does not establish a fixed shot station.

NYI allowed 1.89 5v5 SOG/game from the crease-adjacent origin proxy (league 1.82; 47 games), while TOR generated 1.88 from that band (league 1.83; 51 games). Both historical rates are above their league references in this sample, a candidate location overlap for scouting rather than a validated weakness. Shot origin does not prove a tactical station or tonight’s result.

Earlier TOR SOG from that 5v5 band by verified current-role players: John Tavares 20, Auston Matthews 18; 58 of 96 came from other or unresolved players. Current line/PP membership does not establish a fixed shot station.

NYI allowed 0.91 PP SOG/game from the crease-adjacent origin proxy (league 0.58; 46 games), while TOR generated 0.47 from that band (league 0.57; 49 games). There is no band where both historical rates are above league; this is context, not a selected location attack. Shot origin does not prove a tactical station or tonight’s result.

Earlier TOR SOG from that PP band by verified current-role players: John Tavares 8, Auston Matthews 2; 13 of 23 came from other or unresolved players. Current line/PP membership does not establish a fixed shot station.

No player portfolio passed the matching defense, offense and verified-role checks. The historical comparisons below remain useful scouting context.

Side	Attack area	Matchup	Best role
NYI	No clear primary attack	AVOID	—
TOR	No clear primary attack	AVOID	—

Attack areas / why they are attackable

No player table is forced without a supporting attack.

Shot-origin rows use matched unblocked attempts and fixed adjusted-coordinate bands. “Slot-area” and “point-area” are location proxies, not validated tactical stations or player roles; blocked attempts have no matched origin.

Matchup	Strength	Recorded shot origin	Defense SOG allowed/game	Offense SOG generated/game	Games D / O	Current owners: earlier SOG	Unresolved / outside
NYI vs TOR	5v5	Middle / slot-area origin proxy	10.06 (lg 9.14)	8.23 (lg 9.14)	51 / 47	Emil Heineman 45, Bo Horvat 40	134 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	5v5	Blue-line / point-area origin proxy	6.12 (lg 5.08)	5.11 (lg 5.07)	51 / 47	Tony DeAngelo 44, Adam Pelech 31	134 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	5v5	Outer-perimeter origin proxy	4.82 (lg 4.14)	4.32 (lg 4.15)	51 / 47	Bo Horvat 19, Emil Heineman 15	134 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	5v5	Crease-adjacent origin proxy	1.80 (lg 1.82)	1.87 (lg 1.83)	51 / 47	Casey Cizikas 7, Calum Ritchie 6	134 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	PP	Middle / slot-area origin proxy	2.41 (lg 2.20)	2.24 (lg 2.19)	49 / 46	Bo Horvat 31, Kyle Palmieri 16	8 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	PP	Blue-line / point-area origin proxy	0.61 (lg 0.72)	0.78 (lg 0.73)	49 / 46	Tony DeAngelo 6, Bo Horvat 1	8 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	PP	Outer-perimeter origin proxy	0.76 (lg 0.61)	0.72 (lg 0.61)	49 / 46	Kyle Palmieri 5, Bo Horvat 4	8 excluded unblocked origins
NYI vs TOR	PP	Crease-adjacent origin proxy	0.80 (lg 0.58)	0.57 (lg 0.57)	49 / 46	Anthony Duclair 4, Kyle Palmieri 4	8 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	5v5	Middle / slot-area origin proxy	9.51 (lg 9.14)	8.86 (lg 9.14)	47 / 51	Auston Matthews 74, John Tavares 47	149 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	5v5	Blue-line / point-area origin proxy	5.26 (lg 5.08)	4.57 (lg 5.07)	47 / 51	Oliver Ekman-Larsson 39, Morgan Rielly 24	149 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	5v5	Outer-perimeter origin proxy	3.40 (lg 4.14)	3.71 (lg 4.15)	47 / 51	Morgan Rielly 22, Auston Matthews 14	149 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	5v5	Crease-adjacent origin proxy	1.89 (lg 1.82)	1.88 (lg 1.83)	47 / 51	John Tavares 20, Auston Matthews 18	149 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	PP	Middle / slot-area origin proxy	2.24 (lg 2.20)	2.16 (lg 2.19)	46 / 49	John Tavares 15, Auston Matthews 12	9 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	PP	Blue-line / point-area origin proxy	0.50 (lg 0.72)	0.76 (lg 0.73)	46 / 49	Morgan Rielly 11, Auston Matthews 8	9 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	PP	Outer-perimeter origin proxy	0.54 (lg 0.61)	0.37 (lg 0.61)	46 / 49	William Nylander 6, Auston Matthews 5	9 excluded unblocked origins
TOR vs NYI	PP	Crease-adjacent origin proxy	0.91 (lg 0.58)	0.47 (lg 0.57)	46 / 49	John Tavares 8, Auston Matthews 2	9 excluded unblocked origins

Role / player ownership

No ordinary player target passed the matching opportunity and current-role checks. The table shows verified current players’ earlier current-team production; it is not tonight’s count forecast.

Team	Player	Observed current roles	GP	SOG	Goals	Assists
NYI	Bo Horvat	Line 1/C, PP1	39	130	21	14
NYI	Emil Heineman	Line 3/RW	47	93	12	7
NYI	Tony DeAngelo	Pair 3/RD, PP2	47	88	2	15
NYI	Kyle Palmieri	Line 1/RW, PP1	23	66	5	12
NYI	Adam Pelech	Pair 1/LD	47	64	3	5
NYI	Ryan Pulock	Pair 2/RD	45	59	2	15
TOR	Auston Matthews	Line 1/C, PP1	43	169	22	16
TOR	John Tavares	Line 2/C, PP1	51	119	21	28
TOR	Morgan Rielly	Pair 1/LD, PP2	50	88	9	23
TOR	William Nylander	Line 2/RW, PP1	38	85	19	32
TOR	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	Pair 3/LD	50	68	7	21
TOR	Easton Cowan	Line 3/LW, PP2	40	59	6	11

Power-play scouting

POWER-PLAY SCOUTING — New York Islanders

In the qualified PP games, NYI received 140 official opportunities across 46 games (3.04/game) and 5.14 PP minutes/game. TOR's PK faced 130 across 49 games (2.65/game) and 4.62 PK minutes/game. NYI generated 201 PP SOG (1.44/opportunity); TOR allowed 227 (1.75/opportunity). These are prior rates, not tonight’s predicted PP count or time.

NYI generated 0.54 PP goals and 1.09 PP assists per sampled game; TOR’s PK allowed 0.43 goals and 0.86 assists. The PK has been vulnerable in shots, and this PP already generates production in those same areas. That gives the current unit’s proven producers a matchup reason to be on the betting shortlist.

PP1 has the larger current-member share of team PP goals; PP1 has the larger current-member share of team PP assists. PP1: Bo Horvat leads in goals (6); Bo Horvat leads in assists (7). PP2: Anthony Duclair leads in goals (2); Tony DeAngelo leads in assists (5). Tony DeAngelo provides the leading blue-line assist production (5).

BETTING TAKEAWAY: Look first at NYI SOG markets tied to the current unit’s historical producers. These full-game markets express the supported PP roles; current lines and prices are shown below.

Today's verified PP members supplied 11 of 25 historical NYI PP goals and 20 of 50 credited assists. The rest came from other or unresolved players; these are not historical fixed-unit totals.

New York Islanders PP1

Current-member production share: 28% of team PP goals, 22% of team PP assists.

Player	PP Attempts	PP SOG	PP Goals	PP Assists
Bo Horvat	66	38	6	7
Kyle Palmieri	41	25	1	4
Matias Maccelli	—	—	—	—
Brayden Schenn	0	0	0	0
Matthew Schaefer	—	—	—	—

New York Islanders PP2

Current-member production share: 16% of team PP goals, 18% of team PP assists.

Player	PP Attempts	PP SOG	PP Goals	PP Assists
Simon Holmstrom	12	2	0	1
Calum Ritchie	11	6	1	1
Victor Eklund	—	—	—	—
Anthony Duclair	17	12	2	2
Tony DeAngelo	28	9	1	5

PP production shown from the 2025–26 qualified historical sample for NYI (46 games). Prior-team production is excluded.

Shares describe today’s members’ contributions, not a fixed historical unit. A dash means no qualified current-team history or unverified personnel; a recorded zero is shown as 0.

Role/availability not fully verified: Victor Eklund, Matthew Schaefer.

New York Islanders — Betting expressions

Selected full-game props expressing the PP matchup. These targets share the same power-play opportunity.

Player	Expression	Current line / price
Bo Horvat	Over SOG	3.5 (+125)
Kyle Palmieri	Over SOG	2.5 (+110)
Brayden Schenn	Over SOG	1.5 (-117)

POWER-PLAY SCOUTING — Toronto Maple Leafs

In the qualified PP games, TOR received 122 official opportunities across 49 games (2.49/game) and 4.26 PP minutes/game. NYI's PK faced 125 across 46 games (2.72/game) and 4.41 PK minutes/game. TOR generated 188 PP SOG (1.54/opportunity); NYI allowed 194 (1.55/opportunity). These are prior rates, not tonight’s predicted PP count or time.

TOR generated 0.49 PP goals and 0.82 PP assists per sampled game; NYI’s PK allowed 0.57 goals and 1.11 assists. Neither side of this PP matchup combines into a clear shot, finishing or creation advantage. Current unit membership alone is not a reason to force a bet.

PP1 has the larger current-member share of team PP goals; PP1 has the larger current-member share of team PP assists. PP1: John Tavares leads in goals (5); William Nylander leads in assists (8). PP2: Easton Cowan and Morgan Rielly lead in goals (1); Morgan Rielly leads in assists (3). Morgan Rielly provides the leading blue-line assist production (3).

BETTING TAKEAWAY: No clear TOR PP advantage; avoid forcing a power-play portfolio.

Today's verified PP members supplied 13 of 24 historical TOR PP goals and 20 of 40 credited assists. The rest came from other or unresolved players; these are not historical fixed-unit totals.

Toronto Maple Leafs PP1

Current-member production share: 46% of team PP goals, 42% of team PP assists.

Player	PP Attempts	PP SOG	PP Goals	PP Assists
Auston Matthews	57	27	3	4
Kirill Marchenko	—	—	—	—
John Tavares	53	26	5	5
William Nylander	38	19	3	8
Darren Raddysh	—	—	—	—

Toronto Maple Leafs PP2

Current-member production share: 8% of team PP goals, 8% of team PP assists.

Player	PP Attempts	PP SOG	PP Goals	PP Assists
Jack Roslovic	—	—	—	—
Gavin McKenna	—	—	—	—
Nick Paul	—	—	—	—
Easton Cowan	13	5	1	0
Morgan Rielly	36	16	1	3

PP production shown from the 2025–26 qualified historical sample for TOR (49 games). Prior-team production is excluded.

Shares describe today’s members’ contributions, not a fixed historical unit. A dash means no qualified current-team history or unverified personnel; a recorded zero is shown as 0.

Toronto Maple Leafs — Betting read

No primary PP portfolio. The unit tables provide personnel context, not a recommendation.

Goal / assist / SOG expressions

No player-market expression is prioritized.

Goalie / save read

Neither offense’s shot production and opposing defense’s allowance combine into a clear save-volume advantage.

Scouting read: Monitor saves once the starter is confirmed; no goalie target is selected here.

NYI lists Ilya Sorokin as likely, but this qualified current-roster join has no earlier goalie workload for him. TOR shot generation and NYI team allowance cannot be turned into his personal saves outlook.

Anthony Stolarz faced 708 SOG in 26 observed appearances (27.2/appearance); 632 were saves and 76 were goals. This describes prior workload across listed teams, including relief appearances, while NYI provides the opposing shot environment. It is not a goalie saves prediction.

Goalie	Status	Workload read	Bet
Ilya Sorokin	UNCONFIRMED	No clear volume overlap	Wait for confirmation
Anthony Stolarz	CONFIRMED	No clear volume overlap	No save play

Team	Observed starter	Status	Earlier GP	SOG faced/GP	Save rate	Goals allowed/GP
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	Likely	History unavailable	—	—	—
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	Confirmed	26	27.2	0.893	2.9

Avoid / wait

NYI — No clear primary attack. The offense does not overlap a defensive weakness strongly enough to build a primary portfolio.

TOR — No clear primary attack. The offense does not overlap a defensive weakness strongly enough to build a primary portfolio.

Supporting numbers

These are prior regular-season rates on each displayed qualified cohort. ATTACK means both historical rates exceed their league medians; it is not a bet or tonight’s forecast.

Matchup	Measure	Defense allows/game	Offense generates/game	Games D / O	Read
NYI vs TOR	5v5 SOG	23.86	20.57	51 / 47	offense low / defense permissive
NYI vs TOR	D SOG	8.27	8.81	51 / 47	ATTACK
NYI vs TOR	F SOG	22.98	19.09	51 / 47	offense low / defense permissive
NYI vs TOR	Goals	3.41	2.64	51 / 47	offense low / defense permissive
NYI vs TOR	Credited assists	5.71	4.51	51 / 47	offense low / defense permissive
TOR vs NYI	5v5 SOG	21.15	20.31	47 / 51	NO CLEAR ATTACK
TOR vs NYI	D SOG	7.91	6.67	47 / 51	offense low / defense permissive
TOR vs NYI	F SOG	19.96	19.73	47 / 51	offense low / defense permissive
TOR vs NYI	Goals	2.79	3.35	47 / 51	offense elevated / defense suppressive
TOR vs NYI	Credited assists	4.57	5.53	47 / 51	offense elevated / defense suppressive